How the PrizePicks calculator works
From picks to expected profit
Choose Power or Flex and your stake. Add 2–6 picks with an estimated fair probability for each. Check every payout multiplier against the terms of your entry. Results update automatically.
Fair odds and probability
At −150, implied probability is 150 ÷ (150 + 100) = 60%. At +150 it is 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40%. This conversion does not remove sportsbook margin. Use fair odds or your own probability estimate. The calculation keeps each pick’s probability separate and assumes picks are independent.
Return, profit, and partial losses
A 3x gross payout on $100 returns $300, for $200 net profit. A 1x payout returns only your stake, contributing zero net profit. A 0.4x Flex payout returns $40 and loses $60; receiving money back is not necessarily a profit.
A worked example
Two independent picks with a 60% chance each win together 36% of the time. At a 3x payout and $100 stake, expected profit is (36% × $200) + (64% × −$100) = $8. ROI is 8%, while the chance of losing the entire stake remains 64%.
Full Kelly for this example is 4% of bankroll. Quarter Kelly is 1%, or $10 on a $1,000 bankroll. Flex Kelly uses the complete outcome distribution, including partial losses.
Why results differ from the sheet
The reference sheet averages pick probabilities before calculating outcomes. This calculator uses each pick separately, fixes inconsistent payout contributions, and calculates Kelly from expected log growth instead of multiplying bankroll by ROI. For −153, −125, −125, −125, the corrected four-pick estimates are 3.69% Power ROI and 9.71% Flex ROI.
Assumptions and source
This tool models independent picks with fixed payouts based on the number correct. Correlated picks, pushes, voids, reboots, special picks, bonuses, fees, and taxes are outside this model. It runs entirely in your browser; there is no live odds feed.
Adapted from the Outlier DFS +EV spreadsheet, including its PrizePicks and PrizePicks Calculator tabs. Payout references are editable and are not presented as current operator offers.
PrizePicks calculator FAQs
Positive expected value means positive average net profit over repeated entries if the estimated probabilities and payouts are accurate. It does not guarantee a winning entry. Expected ROI is expected net profit divided by stake.
The presets reproduce the linked spreadsheet’s payout assumptions, reviewed September 10, 2026. They are not verified current offers. Check the payouts on your actual entry and edit the gross multipliers here. A 3x multiplier includes the returned stake.
Only if treating their results as independent is justified. Related picks can be correlated, which changes outcome probabilities and EV. This calculator does not model correlation, pushes, voids, reboots, or special picks whose payouts depend on which pick wins.
A gross multiplier below 1x returns less than the entry stake. For example, a 0.4x return on $100 pays back $40, a $60 net loss. The calculator separates partial losses, total losses, break-even settlements, and profitable outcomes.
Kelly maximizes expected log bankroll growth using every possible net return, including Flex partial losses. Choose a fraction of full Kelly and enter an optional bankroll. Nonpositive EV produces a zero model stake. Estimates are sensitive to probability errors; overlapping entries must not be sized independently and added together.