How the PrizePicks calculator works
A PrizePicks EV calculator shows the average profit or loss you could expect over many entries with the same win chances and payouts. It uses each pick’s chance of winning and the payout for each result. It counts wins, losses, and refunds.
How to use the calculator
- Enter your stake: the amount you plan to spend on the entry.
- Add 2–6 picks and estimate each pick’s chance of winning.
- Choose Power or Flex. Flex needs at least three picks.
- Set the payouts to match those shown on your entry.
- Read the results. They update as you change your inputs.
Enter each pick’s chance of winning
You can enter a win chance, such as 60%, or fair American odds. Fair odds are odds with the sportsbook’s margin removed. The tool converts odds to a win chance, but it does not remove that margin.
- −150 odds: 150 ÷ (150 + 100) = 60%.
- +150 odds: 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40%.
Each pick uses its own win chance. The tool assumes picks are independent: one result does not affect another.
Know the difference between return and profit
Total return includes your stake. Net profit is what is left after you subtract that stake. For a $100 entry:
- A 3x payout returns $300. You make $200 profit.
- A 1x payout returns $100. You break even.
- A 0.4x payout returns $40. You lose $60.
Expected value formula
For each possible result, multiply its chance by its net profit or loss. Add those amounts to find expected profit. Use chances as decimals: 60% = 0.60.
- Expected profit = sum of (outcome chance × net profit for that outcome).
- Expected ROI = expected profit ÷ stake. Multiply by 100 for a percentage.
- Expected value (EV)
- The average profit or loss across many entries with the same inputs.
- Return on investment (ROI)
- Expected profit as a share of your stake.
A worked example
Suppose you enter two independent picks with a 60% win chance each. Both win 36% of the time: 0.60 × 0.60 = 0.36. Your $100 entry pays 3x only if both win.
- Both win: you get $300 back and make $200 profit.
- One or both lose: you lose your $100 stake.
Expected profit = (0.36 × $200) + (0.64 × −$100) = $8. That is an average profit of $8 per $100 entry, or 8% ROI. You still have a 64% chance of losing the full stake on any one entry.
The Kelly formula suggests a stake based on your win chances and payouts. In this example, full Kelly is 4% of your betting funds. Quarter Kelly uses a quarter of that amount: 1%, or $10 from $1,000. For Flex, the formula also counts results where you lose part of your stake.
Why results may differ from the spreadsheet
The spreadsheet starts with the average win chance across your picks. This tool uses each pick’s own chance and counts the payout for every result. It also uses the Kelly formula to estimate a stake.
For four picks at −153, −125, −125, and −125, the starting payouts give an estimated ROI of 3.69% for Power and 9.71% for Flex.
Assumptions and source
- One pick’s result must not affect another.
- Payouts depend only on how many picks win.
- The tool does not account for linked picks, pushes, voids, reboots, special picks, bonuses, fees, or taxes.
- You supply the win chances and payouts. There is no live odds feed.
Adapted from the Outlier DFS +EV spreadsheet. The starting payouts come from its PrizePicks and PrizePicks Calculator tabs. They may differ from current offers. Check your entry and update the payouts before using the results.
PrizePicks calculator FAQs
What does positive EV mean on PrizePicks?
Positive EV means an entry could earn a profit on average over many tries. This depends on your win estimates and payouts being correct. A single entry can still lose. ROI means return on investment: expected profit divided by your stake.
Are these current PrizePicks payouts?
The starting payouts come from the linked spreadsheet, reviewed September 10, 2026. They may differ from current offers. Enter the payouts shown on your actual entry. A 3x payout includes your stake: a $100 entry returns $300 in total.
Can I use picks from the same game?
Use this tool only when one pick’s result does not affect another. Picks from the same game may be linked, so the EV estimate may be wrong. The tool does not account for those links, pushes, voids, reboots, or special picks whose payouts depend on which pick wins.
Why can Flex return money but still lose?
Getting money back does not always mean a profit. A 0.4x payout on a $100 entry returns $40, so you still lose $60. A 1x payout returns your stake and breaks even. You make a profit only when the payout is above 1x.
How is bankroll sizing calculated?
The Kelly formula uses your win estimates and every payout to suggest a stake. Your bankroll is the money you set aside for betting. Enter it and choose a share of full Kelly, such as 25%. The suggested stake is $0 when EV is zero or negative. Errors in your win estimates can make the stake too large. Do not add these stakes across entries that share picks.