Surprise Team in the East: Indiana Pacers
Picking a surprise team in the Eastern Conference struck me as quite the challenge. The New York Knicks are the reigning NBA champions. The Miami Heat won the Giannis Antetokounmpo Sweepstakes. The Philadelphia 76ers acquired LeBron James and Jaylen Brown this offseason. The Toronto Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard. The Boston Celtics get a full year of healthy Jayson Tatum after earning the East’s No. 2 seed a season ago. The Detroit Pistons won 60 games last year. Could any of those teams really surprise (for the better) with their play in 2026-27?
Meanwhile, I’m not a believer in the Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks or Orlando Magic exceeding their perceived ceilings and think the Washington Wizards are talented but ultimately too mercurial to really bank on making postseason noise.
As such, I’ll settle on the 2024-25 Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers, which welcome All-NBA point guard Tyrese Haliburton back into the fold, reinforced their hole at center by bringing in Ivica Zubac last winter and retained much of their 2024-25 core, led by Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. While Haliburton may require some runway to reach All-Star form following his torn Achilles in June 2025, I expect him to do so in due time and help propel the Pacers back into contention and soundly mesh with his new center, Zubac, offensively. This is a darn good team.
Surprise Team in the West: Houston Rockets
Maybe, the Houston Rockets never unearth a path to constructing a viable playoff offense. The roster is still imperfect on that side of the ball. But Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams are back healthy. The former helps stabilize some of their turnover woes (28th in turnover rate last year) and can set the table for various play-finishers (a previously overtaxed Alperen Şengün included) while the latter makes Houston the greatest offensive rebounding team of all-time to offset its pure shot-making woes.
Marcus Smart addresses the Rockets’ lack of playmaking pizazz and gives them another stout point-of-attack stopper who generates turnovers. Şengün, Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson remain very good players. Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard provide useful depth. Thompson, Sheppard, Eason, Smith and Şengün, all of whom are 25 or younger, could enjoy landmark campaigns in, at least theoretically, the most favorable environments of their careers.
I would not be shocked if Houston solidifies itself as a clear top-three team out West by midseason, though I recognize banking on aging veterans like VanVleet, Durant and Adams to carry an already shaky offense could backfire. But I think the Rockets are going to stockpile wins and be very good.
Most Disappointing Team: Denver Nuggets
Outside of Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Cameron Johnson, the Nuggets feel like they’re severely lacking in formidable rotation players. A Christian Braun bounce-back year would alleviate a bit of that and Spencer Jones is a nice bench wing. Yet Marvin Bagley III, DeMar DeRozan, Lonnie Walker IV and Alpha Diallo are all dart-throw signings. Julian Strawther, DaRon Holmes II and Zeke Nnaji are not reliable contributors.
The absence of steadying depth behind Denver’s top four is concerning on its own, let alone when acknowledging Gordon has played 87 games over the past two regular seasons. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Nuggets were 11.5 points better per 100 possessions last year and 8.9 points better in 2024-25. It feels very risky to count on him playing 55-plus games these days but the Nuggets cannot function at a high level without him and are missing the requisite depth to cover for him missing time, which is a recurring event at this point. I don’t buy Denver as much more than a middle-class club out West.
Team That Should Blow It Up: Magic
I’m open to the idea that new head coach Sean Sweeney uplifts Orlando’s now-stagnant trajectory and former head coach Jamahl Mosley’s offensive system was debilitatingly stale. But I just don’t really believe in this core much or trust it to find its way.
Franz Wagner is a splendid player -- though the shooting regression is a glaring wart -- but often injured. Jalen Suggs is very impactful but similarly oft-injured and far too erratic as a decision-making offensively. Paolo Banchero is yet to put it all together through four years, not good enough to shepherd elite offense on the ball and too rigid as a complementary off-ball player. Their depth is poor and lacks role flexibility. The center rotation is mundane and inconsistent. Desmond Bane delivered a tremendous first season in Orlando but the Magic still find themselves searching for their first playoff series win since 2010.
I don’t trust the health of Orlando’s core or congruence of its highest-paid players, Wagner and Banchero, to warrant keeping this group intact. Something should probably give. The East will be very good and the Magic are a step or two behind the top dogs. It’s time for an overhaul to swing at a higher ceiling.
Star Most Likely to Be Traded: Kyrie Irving
Part of this pick is probably me trying to manifest Irving invigorating a guard-starved contender. I also think it’s also possible Irving does get dealt before the February trade deadline as the Dallas Mavericks continue building around Cooper Flagg, something ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said “people around the league will be monitoring.”
Players who can dribble in the paint and navigate tight quarters seem harder to come by nowadays. I watch so many good to great teams short on a wealth of guys like that and it plays a role in their playoff demise. Irving can do precisely that and is an ideal secondary initiator, comfortable off the ball and capable on the ball in doses.
Now, Irving is 33 years old and coming off a torn ACL in March 2025. It is not a guarantee he reaches the universe of the stars again. But I’ll keep an optimistic lens and say he does, hoping it prompts a team to dream big and alter the title landscape by trading for him.
Breakout Player: Ja’Kobe Walter
I expect the Toronto Raptors to be very good this season. That defense projects as tenacious and pugnacious. Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes is a hell of a synergistic star tandem flanked by a vast array of role players in RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Collin Murray-Boyles, Jakob Poellt and Jamal Shead (maybe, rookie Allen Graves, too?). But the Raptors do not have many guys who can defend at the point-of-attack, effectively space the floor and keenly zip around off the ball.
Walter can. Last year, he shot 41 percent beyond the arc (.666 3-point rate) and posted a plus-0.8 Defensive EPM (83rd percentile). He shimmies over screens in his 6-foot-4 frame with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, confidently fires 3s and finds lucrative space when the defense migrates elsewhere.
In the playoffs, he started five of Toronto’s seven contests and averaged 32 minutes per game, offering a clear indicator of how valuable his role can be with this team. That should continue as Walter further asserts himself in year three on a Raptors squad with lofty aspirations.
Player With the Most to Prove: Reed Sheppard
Compared to his rookie season, Sheppard’s sophomore year was a success. He shot 39.4 percent from deep on 13.4 attempts per 100 possessions while showcasing nifty passing and defensive playmaking chops. Yet he shot only 48.6 percent on 2-pointers, consistently looked skittish and overmatched inside the arc, had plenty of defensive concerns like point-of-attack resistance and off-ball awareness, and floundered on both ends in the playoffs (12.2 points per game, 40.7 percent true shooting).
Through two seasons, he has not looked worth the top-three pick the Houston Rockets invested in him two summers ago with glaring flaws as a creator and defender. Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL unexpectedly thrust Sheppard into an arduous role last year. His return should ease the burden for Sheppard this year. That cannot be the standard, though. The Rockets need their recent top-three pick to develop fluency as an on-ball and interior operator. His off-ball feel, intrepid long-range trigger and defensive playmaking are assets but will not suffice forever. He must provide some scoring juice on the ball to both amplify the utility of his skillful passing and encourage Houston to entrust him with more on-ball reps, ones of which he’s yet to prove worthy.
Best Offseason: Toronto Raptors
A bunch of teams had lively offseasons. It was fun to watch unfold! I’m fascinated about all the short- and long-term effects we’ll see in the coming months and years.
The Raptors added an All-NBA wing for the cost of shipping out Brandon Ingram -- who helped guide Toronto back to the playoffs but capitulated once there -- Gradey Dick -- who struggled in 2025-26 and fell out of the rotation -- a pair of first-round picks, a pair of second-round picks and a 2027 first-round swap.
That is undoubtedly a decent amount of draft capital and a bit of a risky price for an oft-injured 35-year-old. The LA Clippers didn’t do terribly in their haul for Leonard. But I just think a 46-win Raptors team effectively upgrading from Ingram to Leonard for the upcoming season is stellar stuff.
He’s a much better midrange scorer, more stable functioning inside the arc and around the elbows, less rattled by physicality, a superior defender and a more effective floor-spacer. He’ll allow Toronto to maintain and enhance much of its offensive identity while shoring up some of the holes Ingram embedded and giving it more pop defensively. I like the fit a ton and am calling the Raptors riviera home this season.
Worst Offseason: Phoenix Suns
After disbanding the Devin Booker-Kevin Durant-Bradley Beal experiment, the Suns rode a more sensible, cohesive roster to 45 wins and the West’s No. 8 last season. In an effort to build upon that success, they acquired Miles Bridges, a 2029 first-round pick (the Hornets and Timberwolves hold swap rights) and a 2027 second-round pick in exchange for Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale and their own 2033 first-round pick.
Presumably, they will trot out a Booker-Jalen Green-Dillon Brooks-Miles Bridges starting quartet, with either Oso Ighodaro or Khaman Maluach filling in at center for the injured Mark Williams. The wing trio of Green, Brooks and Bridges is alarmingly low on floor-spacing, feel and passing. Green and Brooks were already a dubious pairing, Bridges just exacerbates the problems there.
I do understand wanting to beef up the 2-point scoring, where Phoenix finished 27th in percentage last season. Bridges shot 55.4 percent inside the arc on 7.8 attempts per game a year ago. But I don’t think that skill alone mitigates his offensive limitations or lack of defensive impact before even addressing the fact he pled no contest to felony domestic violence in November 2022 then violated his probation on that charge in October 2023.
He is, at best, a tenuous basketball fit and someone with an appalling history of domestic violence. I cannot endorse the Suns utilizing their 2033 first-round pick to bring in that person and player.