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NFL/2026/Team Previews

Everything Hinges on a Healthy Daniel Jones

After an 8-2 start turned into a lost season, the Colts are counting on a healthy Daniel Jones to return to form and a full year of Sauce Gardner can get Indy back to the playoffs.

Headshot of Brian Wright.
Brian Wright
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones smiles on the field while wearing his blue No. 17 jersey
Daniel Jones enters the 2026 season as the key to the Colts’ playoff hopes

At a glance

The Indianapolis Colts enter 2026 with their outlook centered on Daniel Jones’ recovery from an Achilles tear. Jonathan Taylor, Sauce Gardner and Alec Pierce give Indy proven talent, but the team’s ability to rebound depends heavily on whether Jones is truly healthy.

Key takeaways

  • Indianapolis started 8-2 in 2025 before Daniel Jones tore his Achilles and the Colts lost their final seven games.
  • The Colts traded Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh and extended Alec Pierce.
  • Sauce Gardner gives Indianapolis strength in pass coverage after arriving in a November trade.
  • Justin Walley returns after a preseason ACL tear wiped out his 2025 rookie season.
  • The preview predicts a 7-10 finish and last place in the AFC South.

Season Outlook:

The Colts experienced a tale of two seasons in 2025. They won eight of their first ten games before Daniel Jones' Achilles tear. Indy finished by losing its last seven. Jonathan Taylor remains an elite running back, and the Sauce Gardner trade in November gives Indy strength in pass coverage. But this team's fate, and whether it can rediscover last year's first-half magic, depends on their starting QB's health.

What's Changed:

The Colts parted with wideout Michael Pittman Jr., traded to the Steelers for a sixth-round pick, and gave Alec Pierce an extension. Indy lost edge rusher Kwity Paye to the Raiders but rebuilt the defensive line with Arden Key, Micheal Clemons, Jerry Tillery, Derrick Nnadi, as well as two of their eight draft choices.

Bigger Role & Sophomore Breakout:

Alec Pierce’s rewards for career year was a contract extension and a promotion. The Colts’ new number one receiver delayed offseason surgery, which leaves his capability in question until he can prove it. Cornerback Justin Walley was expected to play a major factor in Lou Anarumo's defensive backfield as a rookie, earning first-team reps throughout training camp. But a preseason ACL tear ended his 2025 before it really began. Now he’s back and with the opportunity to fill the void left by veteran leader Kenny Moore II.

Key Question: Is Daniel Jones really 100 percent?

During their ten-game spurt, the Colts were the most efficient offense in the league. Jones exploited both his mobility and his accuracy. Taylor had a 114-yard average and Tyler Warren emerged as a top rookie and an elite tight end. Head coach Shane Steichen will claim that Jones is ready for Week 1, but it's hard to say if he's fully recovered from an injury that occurred less than nine months ago.

Prediction:

The second half of 2025 is a better preview of 2026 than the first. Indy goes 7-10 and finishes at the bottom of the AFC South standings. It’ll be apparent early on that Jones is compromised and the rest of the offense suffers because of it. Neither Taylor nor Warren match the performances they had the year before although the drop-off isn’t terribly severe. Indy will struggle to generate a consistent pass rush and find stability with an unproven set of linebackers.

X-Factor:

It sounds repetitive, but it’s so imperative: Jones’ health can solidify or sink Indianapolis. He was on pace for his highest passing yardage total at a career-high completion percentage. And as last year clearly showed, the plan without him has little chance of working. The Colts so invested in the 29-year-old they signed him to a two-year contract extension worth $88 million in the offseason.

Final Scorecard:

  • Offense: 6
  • Defense: 7
  • Coaching: 6
  • X-Factor Upside: 8
  • Schedule Strength: 6

Frequently asked questions

What is the Indianapolis Colts' outlook for the 2026 season?

The Colts enter 2026 trying to recover from a collapse that followed an 8-2 start in 2025, with Daniel Jones’ health expected to determine whether Indianapolis can return to contention.

Is Daniel Jones healthy for the Colts in 2026?

The preview identifies Jones’ recovery from his Achilles tear as the key question and questions whether he can be fully recovered less than nine months after the injury.

What changed for the Colts entering 2026?

Indianapolis traded Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh, extended Alec Pierce, lost Kwity Paye and rebuilt parts of the defensive line.

Who is the Colts' X-factor in 2026?

Daniel Jones is the X-factor because his health can solidify or sink Indianapolis after the offense fell apart without him in 2025.

What record does this preview predict for the Colts in 2026?

The preview predicts Indianapolis will finish 7-10 and at the bottom of the AFC South.